People are set to live increasingly long
lives, and reaching 100 will soon be "commonplace", say experts.
They say that although there is no prospect of immortality, the
trend for living increasingly long lives looks set to continue.
Centenarians - 100-year-olds - will become unexceptional within
the lifetimes of people alive today, according to Jim Oeppen,
from Cambridge University, UK, and Dr James Vaupel, from the Max
Plank Institute for Demography in Rostock, Germany. They said
there was no sign there was a natural limit, as some experts had
predicted. Each time one has been suggested, it has been
exceeded within five years.
Increased life expectancy
The researchers' suggestion that life expectancies could rise is
based on patterns seen since 1840. Since then, the highest
average life expectancy has improved by a quarter of a year
every year. If that trend continues, the researchers say people
in the country with the highest life expectancy would live to an
average age of 100 in about six decades.
The researchers wrote in the journal
Science: "This is far from eternity: modest annual increments in
life expectancy will never lead to immortality. "It is striking,
however, that centenarians may become commonplace within the
lifetimes of people living today." Average lifespan around the
world is around double what it was 200 years ago. It is now
around 65 for men and 70 for women. Japanese women are currently
the likeliest to live long lives, on average reaching 84.6 years
of age. Japanese men are the second longest male survivors,
reaching an average age of 77.6 years old.
'No ceiling'
The British rank well down the list. Men come in at 14th in the
world table, living to an average age of 75 while women are in
18th place, living on average to 79.9. In France, there is a big
difference between men and women's life expectancy. Men came
16th in the world table, with an average lifespan of 74.9, with
French women in fourth place with a life expectancy of 82.4
years.
Mr Oeppen, senior research associate at
the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social
Structure, said: "One of the assumptions is that life expectancy
will rise a bit and then reach a ceiling it cannot go through.
"But people have been assuming that since the 1920s and it
hasn't proved to be the case. "If we were close to the ceiling
we might expect the survival of Japanese women now to be
improving at a slower rate. But the improvement in Japan is
among the fastest in the world." He added: "I think there is a
ceiling, but we don't know where it is. We haven't got there
yet." Mr Oeppen and Dr Vaupel said their predictions meant even
the highest forecast for numbers of elderly people in the future
could be too low, affecting decisions over pensions, health
care, and other social needs.
Political reaction
Frank Field, Labour MP for Birkenhead
and chairman of the all-party committee on pensions, welcomed
the report. He called for an independent body to be set up to
examine the need for an increase in the retirement age. He said:
"If you look at life expectancy in 1948, when the state pension
was introduced, and take that as a reasonable length of time to
receive a pension, you would have a retirement age of 74 today."